【好展會網】 多名經濟學者預測中國第三季度經濟增長9%左右，很可能恢復金融危機爆發前水平 <br> <br>　　中國進出口商品交易會副主任、中國對外貿易中心黨委書記王志平18日透露：本屆廣交會的訂單結構有了可喜變化———此前在金融風暴影響下，企業收到的多是小單、短單甚至急單，如今數額巨大的訂單開始增多。 <br> <br>　　“雖然小、短、急的訂單還有不少，但是3000萬美元、7000萬美元的大訂單開始冒頭了。”王志平說，這出乎不少參展商的意料，許多企業表示形勢比想象中好，“去年很多客商只是走走看看，今年有更多人坐下來談生意。” <br> <br>　　訂單“質量”上升，采購商的數量也在增多。據統計，截止到10月16日，本屆廣交會出口展區累計到會采購商57686人，比上屆同期增加14.16%；到會采購商居前五位的國家（地區）依次是中國香港、馬來西亞、伊朗、美國和中國臺灣。歐洲采購商數量上升最迅猛，比上屆同期多了約6成。 <br> <br>　　不同行業均感到“暖意”：家電企業反映中東、南美等新興市場客戶增幅較大，一些大品牌甚至出現采購商排隊等待洽談的現象；五金、工具類企業發現歐美客戶回流不少；建材企業則感覺人流量比上屆要大，新客戶更多，主要集中在亞洲、中東地區…… <br> <br>　　作為“中國外貿晴雨表”的廣交會，三天來出現的現象令人驚喜，使人對中國外貿前景信心大增。商務部副部長易小準在展館接受采訪時說：“可以感覺到他們（參展商）的信心已經回來了。同時，據國內參展商反映，國外采購商的需求量比上屆有較大的回升。”他大體贊同“今年年底中國外貿出現正增長”的預測，并認為中國制造業仍將享有“比較快速的增長”。 <br> <br>　　本報綜合消息國家統計局將于下周公布第三季度經濟數據。多名經濟學者預測，中國第三季度的經濟增長率很可能恢復至國際金融危機爆發前的水平。 <br> <br>　　經濟學者預測，第三季度中國主要經濟指標將明顯回升，呈現出投資增速加快，消費穩定增長和出口降幅持續收窄的強勁趨勢，而通貨膨脹的跡象尚不明顯。國務院發展研究中心對外經濟研究部副部長趙晉平表示，“第三季度中國經濟增長率估計在9.0%左右。”中國社會科學院數量經濟研究所所長汪同三認為，中國經濟正處于增長加速的進程中，加上去年受國際金融危機影響的整體基數較低，第三季度中國GDP的同比增速很可能會超過9.0%。 <br> <br>　　交通銀行報告預計第三季度GDP的同比增速將達9%。高盛的預測最為樂觀，它認為中國經濟復蘇勢頭強勁，“第三季度的增長率會接近9.5%”。</span><br> &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; </p> &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; </FONT></td> &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; </tr> &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; </tbody> &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; </table> &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; </td> &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; </tr> &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; <tr> &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; <td>
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